Supply Chain Resilience Hub > Methodologies > Scenario-driven market opportunity analysis

Scenario-Driven Market Opportunity Analysis

The goal of scenario-driven market opportunity analysis methodology is to assist organisations in identifying new opportunities to navigate complex market conditions and the next generation of customers.

It employs a structured approach to provide practitioners with a series of prospective future scenarios as well as an outline of their various market opportunities to aid in the formulation of future supply chain and marketing strategies.

Scenario-Driven Market Opportunity Methodology

Market opportunity is a key factor to consider when enterprises formulate business strategies. However, the market is becoming increasingly complex as new technologies are developed and offered to satisfy the diverse demand of new-generation costumers.

Furthermore, disruptive events such as Covid-19 put many businesses in danger as planning must respond to the crisis and be adjusted to a new reality. The only certainty is that opportunities and challenges always coexist.

This forces businesses to consider broader future scenarios to analyse market opportunity, make priority lists, understand risks and focus on promising initiatives for each of them. Only by doing this, can sustained profitable business growth be achieved.

The Supply Chain Resilience Hub: Scenario-driven market opportunity analysis methodology has been developed to help enterprises identify these opportunities.

It uses a structured approach that gives practitioners a richer picture of factors that influence their business through in-depth internal reflection and external research.

Moreover, it enables firms to identify potential turning points in each scenario, helping them maintain a proactive approach in the face of any uncertainty.

Scenario-driven Market Opportunity Analysis Framework

Scenario Development Phase

Step 1

Setting the scenario agenda

Step 2

Determining the driving forces

Step 3

Clustering the driving forces

Step 4

Defining the outcomes of clusters

Step 5

Creating impact/uncertainty matrix

Step 6

Framing and developing scenarios

Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4

Decision Making Phase

Market Opportunity Analysis
Flex points identification
Decision making

The analysis can uncover:

  • Enablers and inhibitors of future trends.
  • Scenarios that consider the impact and uncertainty of the external business environment.
  • Potential customers, competitors and suppliers.
  • Flex points that enable a more resilient response to the different scenarios.

The output of the analysis will help you to:

  • Identify market growth opportunities in each scenario.
  • Develop long-term supply chain and marketing strategies.
  • Identify areas of intervention.
  • Prioritise financial and human resources planning to realise potential opportunities.

The Supply Chain Resilience Hub is part of WMG at the University of Warwick and supported by the WMG Centre High Value Manufacturing Catapult.

An academic department of the University of Warwick, WMG is a world leading research and education group.

WMG has internationally recognised facilities and expertise in supply chain operations and organisational transformation. Our supply chains research group applies customer responsive supply chain theory into practical solutions that generate both economic and societal value.

Collaborating with industrial partners, we seek to resolve complex business and organisational problems across agrochemicals, automotive, defence, consumer-packaged goods, retail and pharmaceuticals.